DISPLAYING UNCERTAIN INFORMATION ABOUT PROBABILITY: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE

Communicating uncertain experimental evidence.

Four experiments examined when laypeople attribute unexpected experimental outcomes to error, in foresight and in hindsight, along with their judgments of whether the data should be published. Participants read vignettes describing hypothetical experiments, along with the result of the initial observation, considered as either a possibility (foresight) or a reality (hindsight). Experiment 1 fou...

Incorporating Uncertain Evidence Into Arithmetic Circuits Representing Probability Distributions

Arithmetic circuits have been used as tractable representations of probability distributions, either generated from models such as Bayesian networks, sum-product networks and Probability Sentential Decision Diagrams, or directly from data. An interesting question is how we can incorporate uncertain evidence, which specifies that the marginal probabilities of a variable has to undergo certain ch...

Reasoning about uncertain information and conflict resolution through trust revision

In information driven MAS, information consumers collect information about their environment from various sources such as sensors. However, there is no guarantee that a source will provide the requested information truthfully and correctly. Even if information is provided only by trustworthy sources, it can contain conflicts that hamper its usability. In this paper, we propose to exploit such c...

A Probabilistic Logic for Reasoning about Uncertain Temporal Information

The main goal of this work is to present the proof-theoretical and model-theoretical approach to a probabilistic logic which allows reasoning about temporal information. We extend both the language of linear time logic and the language of probabilistic logic, allowing statements like “A will always hold”and “the probability that A will hold in next moment is at least the probability that B will...

Reasoning about Uncertain Domains